The cycle: smart → arrogant → stupid → scared → repeat.
This is a model I believe describes all human and corporate behavior. I humbly call it Hayden’s Mandala. I hope you’ll find it useful. You can apply it to companies, governments, organizations of all types, even individuals. You can use it at the office, at home or on the road. It works like this…
Intelligence Using our native intelligence, we generate ideas to solve problems and discover opportunities: “Here’s how we can get out of this mess. Let’s invent something. Let’s do something new.” Intelligence is the mother of invention.
Intelligent Fear Once we latch onto a great idea, we experience intelligent fear, convinced our idea is so obvious, so stunningly clear, it either has been or will be duplicated by others with more resources who could crush us flatter than a tortilla.
Arrogance When we discover our great idea really is great, arrogance creeps in. We start to think we’re succeeding because others are too dumb or too slow or too old to get it. We start to believe our own PR.
Intelligent Arrogance We’ve succeeded – got the patent, got the market, got straight A’s, got the job – and we’re at the top of the Mandala, quite literally on top of the world. We’re proud of what we’ve done but smart enough to stay paranoid.
Stupidity Because we are all only human, we will at some point do something incredibly stupid. This is normal, but the forces of mediocrity are strong – only the very best can do a reverse on the Mandala and go back the other way.
Arrogant Stupidity More likely, we tumble into arrogant stupidity. The strategies that got us to the top have stopped working, but we stick with them anyway. We couldn’t possibly be wrong, even though we’re losing sales, losing allies, losing employees, losing morale.
Cowardice Once we can no longer deny that things are falling apart – that the center cannot hold – we move to the next stop on the Mandala: cowardice. Now it’s almost impossible to go backwards to the top, and we’re paralyzed by fear anyway. Time to begin the cycle anew.
Fear & Arousal My theory is that most human activity begins with fear. Fear that we’re in trouble. Fear that we’re falling behind. Fear that something bad is about to happen. Fear that we’re stuck. And this fear causes arousal, which translates to “I’ve got to do something.”
Here are some examples of the technology world:
IBM went through this entire cycle—from the beginning of the company—all the way around, and began it again in the early ‘90s under Lou Gerstner’s guidance to arrive at the top where they—for the most part—holding steady today.
Intel has made a whole career out of staying over near “intelligent fear.” Former CEO Andy Grove even wrote a book about it, Only the Paranoid Survive.
Microsoft has stayed pretty close to the top over the years with a few notable lapses into “stupidity” and “arrogant stupidity” such as the time the company said, “Hey, we’re Microsoft. Of course, we can take on the Justice Department.”
Apple has been around the Mandala several times. I worked for the company for a number of years and was there at a moment in the mid-’80s Apple had the only graphical user interface in the world. When OS2 from IBM didn’t work, and Windows didn’t work, what did we do? We raised prices. Now, that’s what we call “arrogant stupidity.”
This little arrow indicates what happened in the Internet boom. Basically, through the application of venture capital you can go from “intelligence” straight through to “arrogant stupidity,” without bothering to go around the Mandala where they might actually build and ship and sell something.
Investment guide Another use for the Mandala is as an investment guide. Buy when a company is on the left side going up; sell it’s on the right side going down.
Culture Here in the lower left quadrant, you are starting with an idea that gets some traction and shows signs of success. This is about evangelism where you want to tell everyone about this good thing that’s happening. You see this in bright start-ups and great teams. That can evolve into fanaticism as the group gets bigger and people start thinking they are really on top of things. Once you go over the top and things become negative, it becomes dogmatism: “We’re doing it this way because we’ve always done it this way, and this is how things are around here.” Then of course when you get down to the bot-tom where you’re losing, and it becomes cynicism: “Ugh, this place will never change,” that sort of unhappy talk.
Entropy There’s another aspect of this that I find kind of interesting especially in managing groups of people. When you start off something really, really good, you start off with centralization, because it’s really a core team of good people who are doing things. It’s like kind of a family. Then you get to centers of excellence, where that core team spreads out, and there are different departments or different places where there’s a new sense of energy. But when things turn bad on you, when you go over the falls, these became fiefdoms and baronies: “I don’t have to deal with you. I’m much too important. Please make an appointment with my secretary.” Or something like that. And then the organization becomes a huge burden, and as you go into collapse, you have what I like to call total entropic meltdown.
Governance At its best, things begin with nationalism in its most constructive sense: people pulling together, proud of who they are, working collectively for the common good. That energy can build a country, create unity, and fuel progress. But success often shifts into chauvinism—the belief that our nation isn’t just good, but better than others. Now the pride that once bound people together begins to separate them from the rest of the world. From there it’s a short step into imperialism. Convinced of superiority, leaders and institutions may try to extend their control, pushing beyond borders, imposing their will elsewhere. What started as national pride curdles into dominance. Eventually, when power collapses or resources are overstretched, fear takes over. That’s when we see the turn to fundamentalism—a retreat into rigid, absolute beliefs as a way to hold onto identity in a world that feels unstable. At this stage, governance becomes more about control and survival than growth or cooperation. Like the Mandala in other areas, the governance cycle shows how something positive at the start can, over time, turn inward, overreach, and finally collapse into rigidity—until a new cycle begins again.
Convergance Convergence usually begins with the best of intentions: collaboration. Different groups come together, share ideas, pool resources, and build something bigger than they could alone. It feels open, energetic, even inspiring. But success breeds confidence, and collaboration turns into cooperation—which sounds nice, but is a little less equal. One group starts steering, others start following, and the balance shifts. From there it’s a short step to control. Instead of working together, the strongest voice takes over. Now it’s less “many hands” and more “my way or the highway.” And when control becomes too heavy-handed or unsustainable, the whole thing tips into collapse. People peel off, alliances break down, and what started as convergence dissolves back into fragments. Like every pass around the Mandala, it starts with promise, crests with confidence, and ends in overreach—until the next round of collaboration sparks the cycle again.